On Friday, ahead of signing a sweeping national policy bill at the White House, President Donald Trump asserted that the legislation is “the most popular bill ever signed in our country’s history,” repeating the claim for emphasis.
However, public opinion, far from supporting the statement, clearly contradicts it.
The legislation, often referred to as one of Trump’s key mega-projects, has consistently polled poorly among Americans. Multiple surveys conducted in June by various organisations show the bill is significantly more unpopular than it is popular.
A Fox News poll conducted in mid-June found that 59% of registered voters opposed the bill, while 38% supported it and 3% were unsure. Similarly, a Quinnipiac University poll from the end of June reported that 55% opposed the bill, 29% supported it, and 16% expressed no opinion. An early June survey by Pew Research Center showed that 49% of adults opposed the legislation, 29% supported it, and 21% were undecided.
In reviewing these and other polling results, analysts have noted the bill’s striking unpopularity. Political science professor Chris Warshaw of George Washington University analysed data showing that this law is more unpopular than any other major piece of legislation passed since at least 1990.
Additional analysis published Friday by data journalist Elliott Morris indicated that, across polling organisations and methods, the bill had an average approval of 31% and disapproval of 54%, resulting in a net approval rating of -23.
Such a figure places the law far from being the most popular in U.S. history.
While it is possible the President has seen internal polling with more favourable results, no evidence of this was provided during his remarks. Historically, some laws have gained popularity after implementation, such as the Affordable Care Act, but current public sentiment suggests that this bill has not yet experienced such a shift.
In addition to the claim about the bill’s popularity, Trump made other inaccurate statements during the signing event.
One such statement was that the new law would eliminate Social Security taxes for seniors. In reality, the law introduces a temporary tax deduction of $6,000 per person aged 65 and older, applicable from 2025 through 2028.
The deduction is smaller for individuals earning over $75,000 annually. According to the White House, this measure will result in 88% of older adults paying no tax on their Social Security benefits, compared to 64% under current law. However, that still leaves about 12% of seniors—as well as some younger beneficiaries—continuing to pay taxes on their benefits.
Trump also reiterated a claim that President Joe Biden allowed 21 million migrants into the country, a number not supported by official figures. As of December 2024, the final full month of the Biden administration, there had been fewer than 11 million recorded encounters with migrants, including many who were rapidly expelled. Even when accounting for an estimated 2.2 million “gotaways”, as cited by House Republicans, the total figure still falls well below 21 million.
Despite these claims, no official data or independent analysis presented thus far supports the President’s statements regarding the law’s popularity or the immigration numbers under his predecessor.